Session 5: The Benefits of Quantifying Uncertainty

The Benefits of Quantifying Uncertainty in Toxicity and Exposure Assessment
OpenTox Euro 2014 speaker: John Doe

John Doe


Parker Doe Partnership LLP, Frodsham, UK

Wed, 24. Sep. 2014

The quest to replace the use of animals in toxicity assessment has been arduous but recent advances are showing promise. It has been recognised that study for study replacement will not be successful and an integration of in silico and in vitro methodology will be required.

Some of the currently available methods have been shown to give reasonable estimations of toxicity but they have lower precision than the conventional battery of in vivo assays which has limited their acceptability. However the precision provided by the conventional assays is not always needed to carry out a risk assessment.

Quantifying the uncertainty in both the estimate of toxicity and in the estimate of exposure allows a judgement to be made on whether safety can be assured or whether more precision is required.

The HESI Risk 21 project has codified this concept into a risk assessment matrix. The use of the matrix will be exemplified and opportunities for the near future will be identified.